Warrnambool

Tomorrow, April 30, 2025Flat1m7fSoft

Verdict

Cracking edition of the Galleywood Hurdle with three genuine chances. STERN IDOL (1) has been the least suited in key lead-ups given his handicap rating, conceding weight to rivals. He's switched back to the hurdles here after a very successful steeplechase career, but was rock solid giving the winner 7kg at Pakenham last time out. Should be primed for this and can continue his outstanding career. AFFLUENTIAL (2) comes here off a win on the flat at Flemington. He's 4/5 over the jumps, and the only miss happened recently when starting $2.05 to beat Stern Idol & The Cunning Fox. Can bounce right back. Can't discount THE CUNNING FOX (4,) who did beat Stern Idol by 5 lengths last time. He's 4/4 over the hurdles but does meet Stern Idol 5.5kg worse off, and has never tackled the 'Bool circuit. RIGHT NOW (6) and PURE DEAL (9) are best outside the top three.

1. Stern Idol
2. Affluential
4. The Cunning Fox

Win Only

2. 2. Affluential
J: WILL GORDONT: JOHN LEEK JR
F: x2501
Price History:
2.63
Age:
6
Weight:
2-4
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
134
Days Since Last Run:
5
Verdict
Useful type. Last run failed to make any headway until the straight; raced back and made ground from the turn; won by a nose Flemington Bm84 Hcp on April 25 over 2500m defeating Fernao with 54kg at $18. Before that didn't finish the race at Pakenham Hdle on April 13 over 3200m. Should be very hard to beat.
1. 1. Stern Idol
J: STEVEN PATEMANT: CIARON MAHER
F: 10x32
Price History:
2.63
Age:
8
Weight:
2-4
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
148
Days Since Last Run:
17
Verdict
Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming led throughout and just faded finished third of 9 starters at Sandown-Hillside Bm70 on March 26 over 3000m, 0.7 len behind Lodbrok carrying 60.5kg at $6. Last start finished second in a small field at Pakenham Hdle on April 13 over 3200m, slow track; 5 len behind The Cunning Fox with 72kg at $3.90. Fitter now and making headway every start. Jumps champ who will take a power of beating here.
4. 4. The Cunning Fox
J: TOM RYANT: PATRICK & MICHELLE PAYNE
F: x8821
Price History:
3.20
Age:
6
Weight:
2-3
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
133
Days Since Last Run:
17
Verdict
Recent form hard to fault. Last to post a big 5 len win. Pakenham Hdle on April 13 over 3200m on rain affected going defeating Stern Idol with 65kg at $3.90 in a hurdle. The start before that; finished second of 8 starters at Geelong Bm64 on April 1 over 2460m, 1.5 len behind Tarvue carrying 61kg at $5.50. Sure to improve again. Beat key rivals last time, impossible to knock.
9. 9. Pure Deal
J: CONOR BRASSILT: BEVAN LAMING
F: 0225x
Price History:
15.00
Age:
7
Weight:
2-1
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
116
Days Since Last Run:
297
Verdict
Resuming. Finished off last campaign when last in a small field at this track 1Jw Hdle July 7 over 3200m, slow track; 12 len behind Alakahan with 70kg at $7.50. Previously first up; 2 in a small field at Pakenham 1Jw Hdle April 14 2024 over 3200m, slow track; 4.5 len behind Elementry with 69.5kg at $2.80. Can sneak into the minors.
6. 6. Right Now
J: DARRYL HORNER JNRT: BEVAN LAMING
F: 163x3
Price History:
12.00
Age:
6
Weight:
2-2
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
124
Days Since Last Run:
17
Verdict
Racing second-up today. First-up after eight months finished third in a small field at Pakenham Hdle on April 13 over 3200m, slow track; 15 len behind The Cunning Fox carrying 65kg at $8.50. Previously second-up ran last at Yarra Valley Bm64 on March 29 2024 over 1950m, 5.5 len behind Almairac carrying 61.5kg at $26. Has minor claims.
3. 3. Fabalot
J: WILLIAM MC CARTHYT: SYMON WILDE
F: 200x8
Price History:
19.00
Age:
8
Weight:
2-3
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
131
Days Since Last Run:
29
Verdict
Having second run back today. First-up after eight months sat on the pace before fading to run last at Geelong Bm64 on April 1 over 2460m, 19 len behind Tarvue with 60kg at $13. Previously second-up finished seventh of 8 starters at Sandown-Lakeside Bm64 on April 1 2024 over 2400m, 9 len behind Samuel Langhorne with 61kg at $21. Reliable jumper with four wins and four minor placings from 14 starts over the obstacles.
7. 7. Carnamah
J: DEAN PARKERT: RACHAEL CUNNINGHAM
F: 50x24
Price History:
41.00
Age:
8
Weight:
2-2
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
115
Days Since Last Run:
17
Verdict
Third-up today. Resuming finished second of 10 runners at Balnarring Trpy on March 29 over 1600m, 2.25 len behind Achaeus carrying 67.5kg at $13. Second-up finished fourth in a small field at Pakenham Chase on April 13 over 3200m, slow track; 15 len behind Duke Of Bedford carrying 66kg at $9. Not the worst.
5. 5. El Diez
J: MARTIN KELLYT: ERIC MUSGROVE
F: 0x945
Price History:
91.00
Age:
8
Weight:
2-2
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
121
Days Since Last Run:
17
Verdict
Last start finished fifth in a small field at Pakenham Hdle on April 13 over 3200m, slow track; 50 len behind The Cunning Fox with 65kg at $61. The run before came from midfield; finished fourth in a small field at this track Hdle on March 28 over 3200m, on slow going 29 len behind Treasured Crown with 70kg at $9.50. Disappointing last time and looking elsewhere.

Non-Runners

8. 8. Dashing Willoughby
J: MR LUCA REMONDETT: KATHRYN DURDEN
F: 24x04
Price History:
23.00
Age:
9
Weight:
2-1
Gear:
-
Official Rating:
115
Days Since Last Run:
17
Verdict
Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming ran last at Ballarat Bm78 on April 2 over 2000m, 9 len behind Muktamil with 61kg at $151. Second run from a spell came from midfield; finished fourth in a small field at Pakenham 1Jw Hdle on April 13 over 3200m, slow track; 5.5 len behind Noonday Gun with 69kg at $17. Rough hope.

Warrnambool

Bet Slip