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What Does Volatility Mean in Pokies?

June 4, 2025

The term “volatility” in regular English means “a tendency to change quickly and unpredictably”. When it comes to pokies it means something else. Essentially, volatility in pokies, also referred to as “variance”, tells players how frequently they are likely to get themselves a winning hand or spin and what the average size of a payout would be.

It’s one of the most important things to consider when you’re choosing a pokie game, so it’s important, whether you’re a newbie, a casual player or a seasoned pro, to understand the concept fully so that you have the best chance at the best possible result.

The Nutshell Explanation

Volatility, as the word implies, is closely associated with measuring risk. Checking the volatility helps a player decide whether the risk is worth it or not and whether the payout is something they’re interested in. The risk versus reward factor in pokies is similar to that in the investment world.

The higher the volatility of a pokie, the more it could pay out if a win is achieved, but that is less likely as the volatility is higher. The reverse is true of lower volatility games- a lower payout but one that is more likely to occur.

Conscientious players must weigh the risk (their wager) with the potential reward (the payout) to figure out whether the potential is worth it from their point of view. All of this said and carefully considered, there is also the fact that chance is at play here. Any machine may go on a spree of payout or the opposite. There’s no way to entirely predict the result of a game that includes elements of both chance and skill, but it’s good to have all the information possible.

Why Is Volatility Important

For the casino or company that makes the game, it’s important to give different kinds of players equal opportunities to win. Whether you’re looking to slowly build up wins or go for that one big jackpot, you have as good a chance as the player who’s doing the opposite of winning. That aspect of fair play and decent odds is important if developers and casinos want players to keep coming back to enjoy their services and games time and again.

The Difference and Relationship Between Volatility and RTP

First, let’s define what RTP means in pokies. Return to Player or RTP works as follows: Let us say the pokie machine advertises an RTP of 95%. This means that for every $100 the player wagers, they can expect to take out $95 in winnings. An RTP level like this is common in games with high and medium volatility.

Having a firm grasp on both volatility and return-to-player rates is key when you are assessing the overall quality of a given machine. It’s very important to remember that neither volatility nor RTP rates offer guarantees: after all, gambling is called gambling for a reason! Even if the RTP on your game is 95%, there’s still a five per cent chance that you’ll lose all your winnings. That said, there’s also a chance you could win an enormous progressive jackpot and be in a better position than you were before you began!

Different Kinds of Volatility

High Volatility

High volatility pokies are the most popular across the board due to the chance they offer to win some really amazing jackpots and payouts. Some of the best-known game developers in the world, such as Pragmatic Play, Hacksaw Gaming, and Blueprint Gaming, craft games with incredibly high volatility that have been very popular since the date of release. Though volatility is largely understood amongst gamblers and fans, these games often receive criticism for their low win numbers, but this is what you get with a high volatility pokie: a small chance to win but a big win if you land one.

What is important to remember is that the RTP of pokie machines with high volatility is calculated by simulating billions of spins in test phases. If you’re a player who i skeen to manage their wendy and enjoy a long period of playing, high volatility games may not be the best choice for you.

Medium-High Volatility

A step down from those we mentioned before are the medium-high volatility games. These machines strike a slightly better balance for players by offering large payouts and a slightly higher frequency of wins, which makes it feel like a less trying process. Especially for newer or less experienced gamers, this is a much better choice as the whole process is slightly more enjoyable.

Medium Volatility

Continuing the trend, medium volatility pokies are a step down in risk factor. This category of risk is the most evenly balanced one, offering players a reasonable buy-in for a reasonable but still exciting enough jackpot. The win opportunities are moderately frequent and the payout sizable, which makes this experience a simple and fun one for players of all skill levels and budgets.

Low-Medium Volatility

The bets keep on getting safer, but in correspondence, the payouts keep becoming more modest too. As betting goes, these are a “safer” bet than all the options that came before them, as players would be losing less when sustaining a loss. That said, they will also be in a lower payout bracket if they do win- but a win is still a win! If you budget and spend wisely, you can get your money back and then some over a reasonable period of play.

Low Volatility

Now we reach the option that is definitely the best choice for those just learning the games, or those just beginning to understand how pokies work and learning the value of different strategies: low volatility. Low variance pokies offer far more frequent wins that come in at far lower value than other options. Machines like this are an ideal “training ground” thanks to the decreased risk of loss and the far higher option of a win.

Budget wisely and you can come out breaking even or on top, but either way, you’re given a chance to learn how everything works without the chance of losing too badly for too long. If you’re an experienced player who likes extended periods of play for the fun of it rather than just to score a big win, these machines are also the best choice for you.

Analysing Volatility To Calculate Your Level of Risk

Understanding how to turn any kind of pokie machine to your advantage as a player is key if you’re looking to keep your losses as minimal as possible and lean towards as many wins as the game will allow. Calculating the volatility of a machine if you understand the odds isn’t for those who are afraid of math, though, because grasping how to lay out equations is a key component of the process.

Every gambling machine is assigned a volatility index that tells the player how volatile said machine is. Game developers often keep detailed volatility data to themselves, but you can gain the insights you need by using the Program Accounting Report. There are a few factors that determine risk that you can easily access and understand:

  • Pokie machines typically have a pay table which shows the volatility of the machine. When the payout for a four-of-a-kind hand or reel is lower than the payout for five of a kind, it is an indication of a higher level of volatility. That will mean that the payout will be somewhere in between 10 and 15 times more for five symbols than it would be for four symbols.
  • Pokie machines are labelled as having a medium to low level of volatility when the payout for getting a three, four or five of a kind bounces between 3 and 5 times the wager.
  • Players may also assess the volatility of a pokie machine based on how the developer awards wins. The payout size, jackpots, and cash prizes can be an indication of how unpredictable the game will be.
  • Check what the high bet limit is. Though these machines can potentially give out enormous jackpots, the maximum stakes on high-volatility pokie machines are more often than not reasonably low.
  • Try out a demo version before placing bets with real money. This can give you a chance to experiment with many of the options above before placing real bets that you stand to lose.

In Closing

Gambling on pokies is such fun because it is just that- a gamble. Knowing all you can know before you begin does give you a better chance at mitigating losses and closing on wins, but the fun is in the game itself.

Written By
David Lynch

Experienced writer and editor based in Ireland. Attends poker events, covers all casino games and slots, but is really a keen blackjack and roulette player at heart. A sports fanatic among all other things with a soft spot for soccer and F1